Bears vs. Vikings Pick, Score Prediction: Odds Tell the Story - bleachernation.com

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The Vikings and Bears have each endured roller coaster first halves, but both teams arrive at Soldier Field tonight with an opportunity to remain relevant in the NFC playoff picture. Following a 5-1 start, the disappointing Bears are just trying to stay afloat as a lifeless offense has sputtered in recent weeks. Equally surprising is that the Vikings have any postseason aspirations at all following a disastrous 1-5 start.

Certainly, these two teams appear headed in very different directions. Can a new play caller inject some life into a moribund offense and help the Bears regain their footing, or will Dalvin Cook and the Vikings stay hot? Let’s break it all down with our Bears vs. Vikings betting odds, pick, and prediction for this Week 10 Monday night matchup.

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Bears vs. Vikings Odds

Two weeks ago, nobody expected the Bears to be the underdog in this matchup. But with the Chicago offense sputtering and the Vikings shredding opponents on the ground, Minnesota has been roughly a field goal-favorite throughout the week. Amazingly, this game marks the ninth time in 10 games this season that the Bears are the underdog. Wild.

If it wasn’t already apparent, oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook and several other Illinois sportsbooks simply aren’t bullish on this team.

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Vikings	-3 (-114)	-177	43.5 (-110)
Bears	+3 (-107)	+55	43.5 (-110)

The Bears-Vikings line opened with Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite. Over the weekend, the number grew to as high as 3.5 points but has since settled right at three.

So what gives? Why are the Vikings favored?

After all, the Bears are at home and sport the superior record. They’re desperate, too, as their playoff odds may depend on getting a win tonight. It all comes back to an offensive attack that is averaging less than 20 points per game this season. The Bears simply have not effectively moved the football, and it’s hard to get bettors to buy in on a team that lacks any semblance explosiveness. Not that starting running back David Montgomery has been explosive but his absence further depletes an unproductive rushing attack.

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Bears vs. Vikings Betting Pick, Prediction

Let’s jump into our Bears vs. Vikings betting picks and score prediction for Week 10.

Recent play aside, the Bears have serious injury concerns they must deal with heading into Monday night. Montgomery, who has 472 rushing yards this season, won’t be available. The impact of this injury is exacerbated by the absence of No. 2 back Tarik Cohen, who is out for the remainder of the season. Expect some mix of Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall against the Vikings, while there was also speculation over the weekend that Lamar Miller could be activated from the practice squad.

Injury Outlook

There’s two ways to look at Montgomery’s injury:

It’s a big blow for the league’s No. 32 rushing attack, one that is averaging just 82.3 yards per game.
Perhaps different personnel will help jump start the scuffling ground game. The ole’ “it can’t get any worse, right?” theory. We’ll see.

Also out for the Bears will be defensive tackle John Jenkins, special teams ace Sherrick McManis and backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Center Sam Mustipher is also unlikely to play. At the time this story was published, there was some optimism regarding the potential of center Cody Whitehair being activated from the COVID-19/reserve list.

On the other hand, the Vikings have a rather short injury report and hold a decided advantage in terms overall health. Backup tight end Irv Smith Jr. will miss the game, while corner Cameron Dantzler is questionable.

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X-Factor: Bill Lazor

Not much more needs to be said or written about just how woeful the Chicago offense has been this season, but I’ll go ahead and do it anyway. Behold the statistical horror show:

Yards per game: 317.8 (30^th)
Yards per play: 4.8 (31^st)
Third-down conversion percentage: 32.26% (31^st)
Points per game: 19.8 (30^th)
Rushing yards per game: 82.3 (30^th)
Passing yards per game: 235.4 (20^th)

Chicago is also 30^th in terms of red zone efficiency. Just awful all the way around.

But there is hope this week for the Bears. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will assume play calling duties from Matt Nagy. We will see if the change has any impact. It can’t be much worse.

Lazor will match wits against a Vikings defense that is simply not what we are accustomed to seeing from a Mike Zimmer team. Minnesota has yielded over 412 yards (No. 30) and 29.2 points (No. 27) per game. If the Chicago offense is ever going to have a bounce back week in 2020, it needs to take advantage of a favorable matchup tonight.

Bears vs. Vikings Betting Trends

It’s all about what you care about when it comes to betting trends. Do you care about a specific team’s past performance? Do you care about head-to-head matchup performance? Or does situational and contextual data matter most? I ask these questions because they are important this week. Clashing trends that suggest two very different outcomes going into this one.

Why Betting on the Bears Makes Sense

The Bears have dominated the recent head-to-head series in Chicago. They have won 16 of the last 19 matchups against the Vikings at Soldier Field.

The Bears have covered 10 of their last 12 head-to-head contests with the Vikings.

Chicago has also had success on Monday Night Football, going 8-3 ATS over their last 11 MNF contests. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been a terrible Monday night play, going just 2-12 ATS over their last 14 games.

Why Backing the Vikings Makes Sense

Minnesota has been a stellar cover team this season. The Vikings are 6-3 ATS overall and have covered five of their last six games. The Bears, meanwhile, are just 3-6 ATS this season.

Where Minnesota has the true advantage, however, is with the contextual trends. Check this out:

Home underdogs over .500 playing road teams under .500 are 18-26-3 ATS and 9-15-1 ATS in division games.
Home underdogs with records over .500 that are playing a road team under .500 are 6-10-3 ATS and 4-8-3 ATS when an underdog of 3 to 3.5 points.
Such teams are also just 2-8-1 ATS in November and 1-6-1 ATS in November division games.

Bears-Vikings Total

The Vikings have been one of the best over plays this season, clearing the total in six of their eight games, including six straight overall.

However, the under has hit in five of the Bears’ last six games and has also cashed in 12 of its last 15 home games.

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Bears vs. Vikings Prediction

Last week, I decided to give the Bears the benefit of the doubt. The Titans, as we saw in their Thursday night Week 10 loss to the Colts, can’t get to the quarterback and are simply not playing good football right now.

I figured 6.5 points against a flawed team would be enough for the Bears. It wasn’t. Chicago couldn’t do anything offensively until late in the second half when the game was already out of hand. Maybe Bill Lazor provides some type of jolt, but I’ll need to see it before I trust this offense again — even as it gets a crack at a bad Minnesota defense tonight.

I think the line is telling us something here, and my suspicions were validated when I viewed the historical data that revealed the struggles of home underdogs over .500 against sub .500 teams later in the season.

Minnesota is playing better football right now, and I’m going to ride the hot hand of Dalvin Cook/trust Kirk Cousins (gulp) to not mess things up.