By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer
"I really don’t know how it’s possible with this lineup that we’re playing like this."
That’s what Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts said after losing to the White Sox last Friday in the first of a three-game set at Fenway Park.
After that, the Red Sox scored three total runs over the next two games, suffering a sweep at home and falling to 10-19 on the season.
Oof.
Why the Boston Red Sox are in an early slump
Ben Verlander does a deep dive into why the Red Sox have hit a rough patch right out of the 2022 gate.
This was the sixth consecutive series loss for Boston. Of the nine series the Red Sox have played this season, they’ve won just one, taking two of three at Detroit in the second week of the season. Since then, it’s been a treacherous spiral down to the bottom of the AL East — yes, even below the Baltimore Orioles.
If this feels oddly familiar, that’s because the Red Sox have had a bizarre track record of yo-yoing between being fearsome contenders and total messes, despite almost always having a ton of star players on the roster. In 2012, Boston brought back much of the same roster that won 90 games in 2011 only to lose 93 games and finish last in Bobby Valentine’s only year as manager.
Naturally, the Red Sox hired John Farrell and won the World Series the very next year. And then they promptly fell back to last place in both 2014 and 2015 … before winning three straight AL East titles and another World Series in 2018. Totally normal sequence of seasons, right?
The Red Sox rebounded from an ugly, shortened 2020 season to win 92 games in 2021. This year, they brought back much of the same roster that reached the ALCS last October. Add in Trevor Story, and it seemed perfectly reasonable to expect Boston to compete in the ever-loaded AL East.
Or so we thought.
Let’s just get the Story part of this out of the way. He has been bad, yes. Undeniably bad. A .194/.276/.269 line with a 33% strikeout rate and zero home runs is not going to cut it for any player, let alone one making $20 million.
But if you look around the league, Story is not exactly the only star free-agent hitter off to a slow start — or at least, an underwhelming one. Twelve hitters signed for at least $50 million guaranteed this past winter. Of those 12, Story ranks 10th in fWAR and wRC+. What hurts even more is that two of the free-agent hitters who are thriving the most right now — Freddie Freeman and Seiya Suzuki — were both targets for Boston in the offseason before landing with the Dodgers and Cubs, respectively.
Story is an obvious scapegoat — big-money signings are always scrutinized more than the players the fan base already knows and loves — but he’s hardly the only laggard.
Another huge issue is that Red Sox outfielders have combined to hit .206/.262/.317 thus far in 2021, amounting to a .579 OPS that ranks 27th in MLB among outfields. If you think that’s bad, now consider that Boston first basemen, led by Bobby Dalbec, have hit a combined .129/.195/.190 for a .385 OPS — by far the worst of any 1B group in MLB.
It’s no surprise that Jackie Bradley Jr., coming off a brutally bad year at the plate in 2021, would be dragging down the outfield numbers. But what about 26-year-old Alex Verdugo and last postseason’s breakout star, Enrique Hernández? And a young slugger in Dalbec who absolutely raked in the second half last year? This was not expected. They’ve been really bad.
So, has anything been going well? Bogaerts, to his credit, has certainly done his part. He and Rafael Devers have continued to form one of the most productive left sides of the infield in baseball. DH J.D. Martinez (.855 OPS) has also done what he has been designated to do — hit, a lot. Beyond that, though? Yikes.
There’s one possible solution beyond just hoping that guys like Verdugo and Hernandez start hitting again. Dalbec’s immense struggles as the primary first baseman have begged the question: When will we see top prospect Triston Casas? Boston’s first-round pick in the 2018 Draft has surged through the minors and offers tape-measure power similar to Dalbec but with a much more disciplined approach, and from the left side. Casas' .873 OPS in Triple-A as one of the younger players in the league has caught the eye of Red Sox fans clamoring for an offensive boost.
Boston GM Chaim Bloom is keenly aware of many fans’ cries to see Casas ASAP but insists the 22-year old could use more seasoning in Worcester, which very well could be the case. But even if that’s true, Casas may still be Boston’s best option at first base right now, even if he were to experience some level of initial struggle.
Outfield prospect Jarren Duran recently got the call back up to Boston after a hot start of his own, but Duran, who’s 25, already had experience at Triple-A in 2021, which Casas did not. If not Casas, shortstop Jeter Downs, the headliner prospect in the infamous Mookie Betts trade, is also off to a strong start and could earn a call-up for his MLB debut. Utilityman Ryan Fitzgerald, whom Boston signed out of independent ball in 2018, is raking in Worcester and may also factor into the mix sooner rather than later.
What’s been most disappointing through this first month for Boston is that the offense that we all expected to put up buckets of runs has let down a pitching staff that we weren’t nearly as excited about but hasn’t been all that bad. If you had told me that Nasty Nate Eovaldi, the eternal Rich Hill, the spectacular Garrett Whitlock, and Michael Wacha would have a combined 2.18 ERA in 103.1 IPs to start the season, I’d assume that Boston was in pretty decent shape. Alas, the Red Sox are not. Plus, Hill is on the COVID-IL and Wacha just hit the IL with an intercostal strain, so the rotation depth is about to be tested.
And pitching reinforcements may not be coming as quickly as hoped, as both Chris Sale and James Paxton recently suffered setbacks in their respective rehabs that will likely keep them both on the shelf for longer than originally anticipated. It sounds like Sale may not be available until late June while Paxton’s return may have to wait until after the All-Star break. Rookie right-hander Connor Seabold could reasonably slot into the back of the rotation in the near future, but that’s a lot to ask.
So, are the Red Sox toast? Probably not. It’s still plenty early, and as Bogaerts pointed out, they sure do have a lot of good baseball players on their team.
But they are now 10 games behind the first-place Yankees. Only the Cincinnati Reds — off to a historically terrible start at 5-23 — sit further back from first place in any division. This is quite the hole the Red Sox have dug for themselves.
If they want to turn things around, they’ll need to do so against some quality teams over the next few weeks, including Atlanta, Houston and another series against the White Sox. But starting on May 27, Boston has a stretch of 10 games against Baltimore, Cincinnati and Oakland. If the Red Sox can start to pick up some momentum before then, going 9-1 or 8-2 in that stretch could conceivably get them back in the wild-card mix at least.
Then again, the hole might be even deeper by then.
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.
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