How high can Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Luis Arraez fly? Can the surprise teams stay surprising, and can the Mets and Padres stop flopping? And who will get traded?
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The 2023 All-Star break has come and gone, bringing big home runs from all the expected candidates: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodríguez, and Elias Díaz. But now the real games begin again, so it’s time to prepare for all the record chases, playoff races, and trades of aces that might highlight the next couple months of the baseball calendar. Here are the 10 story lines to watch in the season’s second half.
1. Shohei Ohtani’s WAR
The American League MVP race is already over. Shohei Ohtani is a -750 favorite to win his second MVP trophy, according to FanDuel odds, which converts to an 88 percent probability. That’s what happens when the majors’ best hitter—Ohtani leads all qualified batters with a 181 wRC+ and 32 homers—is also striking out 32 percent of opposing hitters and allowing an MLB-best .189 batting average when he takes the mound.
The question now isn’t where Ohtani ranks relative to his peers, but where he stands in baseball history. Through 91 Angels games, Ohtani’s been worth 6.5 wins above replacement, per Baseball Reference—4.0 as a hitter (despite facing a defensive penalty as a designated hitter) plus 2.5 as a pitcher. That sum puts him on pace for 11.6 WAR over the full season.
If Ohtani produces 11 WAR, he’d become the first player to do so in more than two decades. Pedro Martínez is the last pitcher to reach that threshold (11.7 in 2000), and Barry Bonds is the last such position player to do so (11.7 in 2002).
And if Ohtani boosts his pace a tad—say, by reining in his control issues—then he has a realistic chance to reach 12 WAR, which is even more rarefied air. Since integration, the only pitchers to post a 12-WAR season are Dwight Gooden (12.2 in 1985) and Steve Carlton (12.1 in 1972). The only position player to do so is Carl Yastrzemski (12.4 in 1967).
With Mike Trout injured and the Angels slumping, Ohtani probably won’t find his way to the first playoff series of his career. But individual glory is still ripe for the picking.
2. Record Chases by Ronald Acuña Jr. and Friends
Ohtani isn’t the only player chasing a unique brand of history. Ronald Acuña Jr. is also on a legendary trajectory, with a 21-homer and 41-steal first half that puts him on pace for 38 homers and 75 steals over the full season. Thus, Acuña has a golden opportunity to inaugurate the 40-70 club—which would be quite a feat when, at least for now, even the 30-70 club is empty. (Rickey Henderson’s 28 homers in 1986 are the record for anyone with 70-plus steals.)
That scintillating combination of power and speed makes Acuña almost as massive an MVP favorite as Ohtani; he has a 77 percent chance to win the National League’s award, per FanDuel odds. And Acuña is also a key contributor to another record chase, as Atlanta seeks the all-time single-season home run record as a team. Acuña, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and the rest of Atlanta’s powerful lineup are ever so slightly ahead of record pace here, as their 169 homers in 89 games extrapolate to 308 homers in 162 games—one more than the tally by the 2019 Twins’ Bomba Squad.
This Atlanta pace is even more impressive than that Twins figure, because 2023’s home run environment isn’t as extreme. In 2019, the Yankees slammed 306 homers (the second most ever), the Astros blasted 288 (third most), and the Dodgers donged 279 (fourth most). Overall, MLB teams hit 1.39 homers per game, the highest mark ever.
In 2023, by comparison, no other team is on pace for more than 272, and the league average is only 1.16 homers per game. Atlanta might be running away with the NL East—the only division in which the leader is more than two games ahead of the second-place team—but there’s still ample reason to pay attention to the club’s second half of the season.
3. More Record Chases, Starring Luis Arraez and Co.
Acuña isn’t the only player in the NL East who should inspire fans to check his box score every day. Luis Arraez’s quest to become the majors’ first qualified .400 hitter since 1941 would be simultaneously the least likely accomplishment and, perhaps, the most remarkable of any discussed thus far.
Unfortunately, a mini-slump before the All-Star break took some of the shine off Arraez’s average. After a 2-for-5 effort on June 27, Arraez was hitting .399. But in his last 12 games before the break, Arraez hit only .283, with an 0-for-4 final game that dropped his season average to .383. (Sadly, his 2-for-2 performance in the All-Star Game doesn’t count.)
It’s not impossible for him to climb back to historic territory; Arraez was in the .370s in late May before boosting his average back up over .400, and he did the same in mid-June as well. But the longer the season progresses with Arraez below the milestone mark, the more daunting his task becomes.
Arraez is now 17 points below .400 through 92 team games, which means he must hit considerably better than .400 going forward to make up that gap. Here’s the scary math: If Arraez continues to bat as often through the rest of the season as he has thus far, he’ll need to hit .424 the rest of the way.
At least Arraez’s team has its sights set on other goals, as the Marlins seek their first non-2020 playoff bid since 2003. (Famously, of course, the Marlins have made two non-2020 playoff appearances and won the World Series as a wild card both times.) Here, another historic opportunity presents itself: Miami is 53-39, the second-best record in the entire NL, despite a negative run differential.
That’s a 58 percent winning percentage; the AL/NL record for best winning percentage with a negative run differential in a full season is 56 percent, by the 1932 Pirates. Much of that dissonance stems from the Marlins’ dominance in close games. Their 78 percent win rate in one-run games (21-6) would also set a new record if it held up, besting the 2016 Rangers’ 77 percent mark.
4. Young, Fun Contenders Making the Leap
As the second half begins, half of the current playoff field is composed of surprise contenders (the Marlins among them). The Reds lead the NL Central. The Diamondbacks are tied for the lead in the NL West. The Rangers lead the AL West. And the Orioles lead the AL wild-card race. Entering the season, not one of those five teams had even a 40 percent chance to reach the postseason, according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds.
Almost all of those teams have a few key traits in common. (“Almost” because while Texas has a few young standouts, like rookie third baseman Josh Jung, that roster is a bit older and more expensive than the others in this group.) They’re young, they’re cheap, and they’re wildly entertaining.
The Marlins’ Eury Pérez is the majors’ best rookie pitcher (though he’ll spend some time in the minors to limit his innings). Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain give the Reds a dynamic rookie infield. Corbin Carroll is the NL’s Rookie of the Year favorite (and might well be the MVP favorite if not for Acuña) while Zac Gallen leads the NL Cy Young race. And the Orioles shine with their Adley Rutschman–Gunnar Henderson duo plus other touted youngsters, like Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser, whom they’ve promoted within the last few weeks.
That doesn’t mean all of these teams will sustain their current levels of play—odds are at least one team from this bubbly handful will fall out of the race in the second half, especially because some of them have gotten a little lucky in the first half. The Orioles and Reds—who, to be fair, have improved their rosters as the season has gone on—have both outperformed their BaseRuns records by eight wins, the majors’ biggest difference. (By that metric, Baltimore “should” be 46-43, and Cincinnati “should” be 42-49.)
But excluding 2020, none of these five teams have reached the playoffs more recently than 2017—and at long last, their rebuilds and youth movements are finally paying off, all at once. October could be full of new faces this year.
5. Wobbly Winners Trying to Stay on Top
If the young, fun teams are on the way up, then the zero-sum nature of baseball’s standings dictates that old, boring teams should be on the way down. Lo and behold, the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees—the majors’ three winningest teams over a long span entering this season—are all fighting for playoff berths rather than coasting toward more October baseball.
The Dodgers are in the best shape of this trio, with a share of the NL West lead—but for a team that won at an absurd 109-win pace over the past four seasons (prorating 2020’s shortened schedule), a mere 93-win pace represents a massive step back. The Dodgers’ lineup has transformed into a sort of stars-and-scrubs outfit this season; some All-Stars are performing at an elite level—Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith all rank among the top 10 qualified hitters in wRC+—but they have unfamiliar holes around them, as L.A.’s youth movement proceeds in fits and starts. And the Dodgers face more uncertainty with their pitching staff as the second half begins, thanks to recent injuries to Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May, plus bullpen inconsistency in the middle innings.
At least the Dodgers are in better shape than the staggering Astros and Yankees. Aside from Kyle Tucker, Houston’s entire lineup is either injured or underperforming—or both—while the Yankees have been hopeless with Aaron Judge sidelined by a torn toe ligament. Since Judge’s last game, the Yankees rank 30th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, and 26th in slugging percentage, with a .218/.288/.379 teamwide slash line.
At the moment, Houston and Toronto are tied for the final two wild-card spots in the AL, with the Yankees one game back, the Red Sox two back, and the Mariners and Angels behind them. That’s too many teams fighting over the same spots for every prospective contender to go home happy.
6. Aaron Judge’s Mysterious Status
Speaking of that anemic Yankees offense: Judge hasn’t played since June 3, when he hurt his toe crashing through the Dodger Stadium fence, and his possible return date—heck, his possible return at all this season—remains murky. Thus, one of the sport’s most famous and productive players, and the star of its most famous team, is shrouded in mystery. This outcome certainly isn’t what the Yankees envisioned when they signed the single-season AL home run record holder to a nine-year, $360 million megadeal last winter.
If Judge can’t return to bolster the Yankees lineup this season, their season is likely doomed—and so, too, might be manager Aaron Boone, and maybe even general manager Brian Cashman, one of the longest-tenured chief executives in MLB history. Cashman might be feeling some pressure, judging by his decision to replace hitting coach Dillon Lawson with Sean Casey this week—the first time he’s ever fired a coach midseason.
7. Dreadful Disappointments From the Mets and Padres
At least the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees have winning records, even though they’ve played below expectations. The same can’t be said for every team that entered the 2023 season looking like a World Series contender, because the 43-47 Padres and 42-48 Mets are both in dire straits.
Suffice it to say, missing the playoffs—let alone finishing below .500—would register as a DEFCON 1 disaster for the teams with the highest and third-highest payrolls in the sport. The Mets look old and sluggish, particularly on the pitching staff, where Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have a combined 4.00 ERA. The Padres have been undone by injury-hampered performances from Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado, plus a terrible 5-15 record in one-run games and a 0-8 mark in extra-innings contests. (That poor luck belies solid underlying fundamentals: The Padres have a 49-41 BaseRuns record, the fifth best in the NL.)
Because the NL playoff picture is so muddled with mediocre teams (Atlanta excepted), it’s still possible for these offseason “winners” to match that hype with a second-half surge. But time is running out as true disaster approaches.
8. AL Central Mediocrity
Every division has been represented in this article thus far, with one exception: the AL Central, which offers no exciting award races; no fun, young teams; and no traditional powerhouses on the ropes. Instead, the AL Central offers intrigue for a different reason: At the break, it doesn’t have a single team with a winning record and is in the running for the worst-ever out-of-division record as a group.
To that end, there’s less suspense about which team will win the division—likely either the Guardians, currently 45-45, or the Twins, at 45-46—than about what that victor’s final record will be. In a full AL/NL season, no team has ever reached the playoffs with a losing record; the low mark belongs to the 2005 Padres, who won the NL West with an 82-80 record. (Notably, before the 1994 strike canceled the playoffs, every AL West team was at least 10 games below .500.)
Whichever team wins the AL Central will enter the playoffs at a disadvantage as the sure no. 3 seed and only AL winner without a first-round bye. But an early elimination won’t be guaranteed: Two teams with only slightly better records than the 2005 Padres transformed into vibrant October Cinderella stories. The 1973 Mets won the NL East with an 82-79 record before reaching Game 7 of the World Series, and the 2006 Cardinals won the NL Central with an 83-78 record and went on to win the championship.
9. Trades? Trades!
Oh yeah, the trade deadline is three weeks away. But unless the Angels decide to trade impending free agent Ohtani—which is unlikely no matter how far they fall in the standings over the next few weeks—we might be in for a muted deadline.
Cellar dwellers like the A’s have already traded away most of their best players, while other teams on the outside of the playoff picture—like those Mets and Padres—are unlikely to become sellers. That leaves the market shockingly light on bats, in particular. Who’s excited about Lane Thomas and Jeimer Candelario?!
The starting pitcher market has more potential. The Cubs, Tigers, and White Sox could trade Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Lucas Giolito, respectively. Even though the Guardians are leading their division, perhaps they’ll try to trade Shane Bieber midway through the worst season of his career, because Bieber will be a free agent after the 2024 season, and that’s occasionally been the team’s MO. The Red Sox are also in an odd spot—in last place in the AL East, but just two games out of a wild-card spot with a 48-43 record—and could deal the oft-injured James Paxton, who has a 2.73 ERA and a 29 percent strikeout rate in 10 starts.
But the biggest non-Ohtani domino that could fall is the 38-52 Cardinals, who have been so bad they don’t even qualify for the Mets-Padres tier. The Cardinals could influence all corners of the trade market. St. Louis could deal starting pitchers, with Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty poised to reach free agency this offseason. It could trade relievers, like Jordan Hicks and Ryan Helsley. It could even supply the only available big bat, if Paul Goldschmidt—a free agent after 2024—agrees to waive his no-trade clause to play for a contender.
On that note, Goldschmidt to the Phillies is my favorite fake trade of the summer. A year after reaching the World Series, Philadelphia is 48-41, well positioned in the wild-card race but stuck with a hole at first base after Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL in March. Imagine the potential of a Schwarber-Turner-Goldschmidt-Harper-Castellanos-Realmuto top six.
10. Oakland’s Pursuit of the Wrong Kind of Record
We’ll end with the A’s, who deserve to bring up the rear. Thanks in large part to a seven-game win streak in June, Oakland probably won’t set the all-time loss record this season. The A’s are on pace for a final record of 44-118, which puts a bit of a buffer between them and the 1962 Mets’ modern-era-worst 40-120.
But the record for worst run differential remains well within their grasp. Oakland is already minus-248 on the season, which puts the team on a minus-437 pace, nearly 100 worse than the modern record of minus-349, set by the 1932 Red Sox. Congratulations to John Fisher and his $2 billion–plus net worth.
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July 14, 2023 at 05:10PM
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The Top 10 Story Lines of MLB’s Second Half - The Ringer
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